Residents in the Carolinas should prepare for a complex rainfall event impacting the region from Saturday afternoon through Sunday evening. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to become numerous this afternoon and evening as a cold front descends from the north.
Temperatures are forecast to warm into the low 80s before the arrival of storms, which are anticipated between 1 to 3 p.m., with the heaviest activity projected for 3 to 6 p.m. A significant threat from this initial round of weather is heavy rain, driven by a deep plume of subtropical moisture being lifted northward ahead of the front. This could result in localized heavy rainfall, potentially accumulating 1 to 2 inches in some areas if storms slow down. A 70% chance of rain is expected this afternoon and evening, with the threat for severe storms remaining relatively low, though heavy rain is the primary concern.
Widespread rain will continue overnight as the cold front settles in, bringing cooler temperatures into the upper 60s. This period overnight poses a risk for localized flooding in certain areas if storms slow down or stall.
A brief lull in precipitation is expected Sunday morning. However, rain is set to return Sunday midday and into the evening as another system moves in from the west. Temperatures will remain cool in the upper 60s, a condition attributed to cold air damming east of the Blue Ridge Mountains. Widespread rain is again forecast with a 70% chance. This second phase of rain is described as more dynamically forced and could produce another 1 inch of rain in some spots. Locations that experience heavy rain from both Saturday and Sunday could face increased flooding issues.
In summary, the combination of Saturday's thunderstorms and Sunday's widespread rain elevates the threat for excessive rainfall and localized flooding through Sunday night across the region.
Looking ahead, there is good news: the rain is expected to clear out by early Monday morning. High pressure will then take over, ushering in dry and cooler weather for the remainder of the week. Monday will see mostly cloudy conditions, with temperatures rebounding to near normal levels in the upper 70s and winds from the northeast at 10 mph.
Tuesday and Wednesday are anticipated to be dry and cool, with highs in the low to mid-60s under mostly clear skies, offering what is described as "perfect fall weather." The latter half of the week, Thursday and Friday, will see temperatures gradually warm back to normal, reaching the upper 60s to low 70s. Mostly clear skies are expected to continue, promising what is called "spectacular autumn weather." Dry conditions are expected to persist into next weekend as high pressure remains in control.
