The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has projected an El Nino event for this winter, anticipating increased precipitation across Western North Carolina. Experts warn that these conditions could lead to hazardous driving in Boone, particularly due to the potential for freezing rain and sleet.
El Nino, a phenomenon occurring every two to seven years, is characterized by a rise in sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific Ocean. While El Nino typically brings storms to the South, this year's event is projected to be unusually warm. Sujan Shrestha, an assistant professor in the Department of Physics and Astronomy, highlighted models predicting temperatures three to three and a half degrees warmer than normal. Shrestha noted that El Nino events in the past decade were about 1.5 degrees Celsius higher than previous years, suggesting an increasing trend.
Shrestha explained that the combination of climate change and El Nino could intensify the severity of winter weather. A warmer El Nino often translates to a warmer mid-level troposphere in Boone. This atmospheric condition could cause precipitation to fall as freezing rain or sleet, rather than snow, creating more treacherous road conditions. Driving in ice is "more scary," Shrestha said, compared to snow, which transportation departments can manage more effectively.
The type of precipitation also affects road treatment strategies. Chrissy Murphy, communications officer with the North Carolina Department of Transportation (NCDOT), noted that salt brine, a common pre-treatment for snow, can only be applied to dry roads. If rain is expected before a freeze, this crucial preventative measure is not possible. Brine application helps to slow the freezing process on road surfaces.
Despite the challenging forecast, Murphy indicated that NCDOT has made significant progress on Hurricane Helene recovery projects. She stated that many of these projects are complete or nearing completion, which could mean improved driving conditions compared to last winter. NCDOT does not anticipate changes to its standard operating procedures for winter weather, with crews working 12-hour shifts to clear state-maintained roads once precipitation begins.
However, the responsibility for road maintenance in Boone is split between the town and state. Mayor Dalton George clarified that the Town of Boone has limited authority over major thoroughfares. Roads such as King Street, US 321, and NC 105 are owned and maintained by the State of North Carolina. While the town is responsible for plowing and salting its own local roads, state employees must address the larger ones. George acknowledged the extensive task facing state crews, as they cover a vast district.
George advised citizens who are dissatisfied with winter road upkeep to direct their concerns to state government officials. He suggested that conversations should be aimed at state representatives, questioning what actions will be taken to secure more funding for the Department of Transportation's plowing efforts.
Both Mayor George and NCDOT's Murphy urged inexperienced drivers to stay home during winter storms. Murphy emphasized that it helps crews complete their work when people stay off the roads, providing them the necessary time and space.
